Search results for "bayesian modeling"
showing 7 items of 7 documents
Stones, Bones, and Hillfort: Radiocarbon Dating of Ķivutkalns Bronze-Working Center
2013
The Bronze Age site of ķivutkalns with its massive amount of archaeological artifacts and human remains is considered the largest bronze-working center in Latvia. The site is a unique combination of cemetery and hillfort believed to be built on top of each other. This work presents new radiocarbon dates on human and animal bone collagen that somewhat challenge this interpretation. Based on analyses using a Bayesian modeling framework, the present data suggest overlapping calendar year distributions for the contexts within the 1st millennium BC. The carbon and nitrogen isotopic ratios indicate mainly terrestrial dietary habits of studied individuals and nuclear family remains buried in one o…
How Many Clocks, How Many Times? On the Sensory Basis and Computational Challenges of Circadian Systems
2018
A vital task for every organism is not only to decide what to do but also when to do it. For this reason, “circadian clocks” have evolved in virtually all forms of life. Conceptually, circadian clocks can be divided into two functional domains; an autonomous oscillator creates a ~24 h self-sustained rhythm and sensory machinery interprets external information to alter the phase of the autonomous oscillation. It is through this simple design that variations in external stimuli (for example, daylight) can alter our sense of time. However, the clock’s simplicity ends with its basic concept. In metazoan animals, multiple external and internal stimuli, from light to temperature and even metaboli…
Relative risk estimation of dengue disease at small spatial scale
2017
Abstract Background Dengue is a high incidence arboviral disease in tropical countries around the world. Colombia is an endemic country due to the favourable environmental conditions for vector survival and spread. Dengue surveillance in Colombia is based in passive notification of cases, supporting monitoring, prediction, risk factor identification and intervention measures. Even though the surveillance network works adequately, disease mapping techniques currently developed and employed for many health problems are not widely applied. We select the Colombian city of Bucaramanga to apply Bayesian areal disease mapping models, testing the challenges and difficulties of the approach. Methods…
Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Suicide-Related Emergency Calls
2017
Considerable effort has been devoted to incorporate temporal trends in disease mapping. In this line, this work describes the importance of including the effect of the seasonality in a particular setting related with suicides. In particular, the number of suicide-related emergency calls is modeled by means of an autoregressive approach to spatio-temporal disease mapping that allows for incorporating the possible interaction between both temporal and spatial effects. Results show the importance of including seasonality effect, as there are differences between the number of suicide-related emergency calls between the four seasons of each year.
Five Ways in Which Computational Modeling Can Help Advance Cognitive Science
2019
Abstract There is a rich tradition of building computational models in cognitive science, but modeling, theoretical, and experimental research are not as tightly integrated as they could be. In this paper, we show that computational techniques—even simple ones that are straightforward to use—can greatly facilitate designing, implementing, and analyzing experiments, and generally help lift research to a new level. We focus on the domain of artificial grammar learning, and we give five concrete examples in this domain for (a) formalizing and clarifying theories, (b) generating stimuli, (c) visualization, (d) model selection, and (e) exploring the hypothesis space.
Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Zika and Dengue Infections within Colombia
2018
The aim of this study is to estimate the parallel relative risk of Zika virus disease (ZVD) and dengue using spatio-temporal interaction effects models for one department and one city of Colombia during the 2015&ndash
Neighborhood Characteristics, Alcohol Outlet Density, and Alcohol-Related Calls-for-Service: A Spatiotemporal Analysis in a Wet Drinking Country
2017
Alcohol outlets have been associated with different social problems, such as crime, violence, intimate partner violence, and child maltreatment. The spatial analysis of neighborhood availability of alcohol outlets is key for better understanding of these influences. Most studies on the spatial distribution of alcohol outlets in the community have been conducted in U.S. cities, but few studies have assessed this spatial distribution in other countries where the drinking culture may differ. The aim of this study was to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of alcohol outlets in the city of Valencia, Spain, and its relationship with neighborhood-level characteristics, as well as to examine t…